Currency risk in Morocco: in 2026 the dirham is posting its sharpest depreciation since 2022. What tighter foreign-currency liquidity means for corporate budgets.
On October 26, 2026, TelQuel took stock of a move many finance departments have already seen in their accounts: in 2026 the dirham is posting its sharpest depreciation since 2022.
Since the start of the year, the USD/MAD pair has risen by 7.2% and the EUR/MAD pair by 2.4%.
According to an October 23 note from Attijari Global Research (AGR), the financial research arm of Attijariwafa bank, the main source of pressure is not the currency basket the dirham is pegged to, but tighter foreign-currency liquidity, driven by three factors: energy, phosphates and dividends.
For companies, this is not theoretical. It directly affects costs, prices and margins.
What do +7.2% and +2.4% actually mean?
When USD/MAD rises by 7.2%, it takes 7.2% more dirhams to buy the same amount of dollars.
A simple example: a company that imported USD 1 million of goods at the start of the year now needs about 7.2% more dirhams for the same volume, at an unchanged dollar price.
Against the euro, the increase is more moderate, at 2.4%. The impact therefore depends heavily on the currency in which the company buys, sells or borrows.
Two companies in the same sector can feel very different effects depending on whether their suppliers invoice in dollars or euros.
Why foreign-currency liquidity matters as much as the exchange rate
AGR’s diagnosis, as reported by TelQuel, shifts the focus: the pressure does not come primarily from the basket, but from the availability of foreign currency.
The three factors cited, energy, phosphates and dividends, correspond to three major foreign-currency flows in the economy:
- energy, which Morocco imports and pays for in foreign currency;
- phosphates, one of the main export items, and therefore a major source of foreign-currency inflows;
- dividends, which subsidiaries of foreign groups transfer to their parent companies.
The details of AGR’s analysis are reserved for TelQuel subscribers. But the general mechanism is clear: when foreign-currency outflows grow faster than inflows, liquidity tightens, and that weighs on the exchange rate.
Which companies are most exposed?
A weaker dirham does not affect every company the same way. The most exposed are generally:
- importers of raw materials, equipment or finished goods invoiced in dollars;
- companies with foreign-currency debt, which mechanically increases in dirhams;
- companies selling on the local market at fixed or contractual prices, unable to pass on the increase;
- subsidiaries of international groups whose budget and dividends are tracked in foreign currency.
Conversely, an exporter paid in dollars sees its revenue rise in dirhams. But it only fully benefits if its own costs are not also in foreign currency.
A budget in dirhams is no longer enough
Many companies build their annual budget on an implicit exchange rate, often the one prevailing when the budget is approved.
When the dollar gains 7.2% in a few months, that budget becomes wrong on every exposed line: purchases, transport, energy, software licenses, debt repayments.
The reasoning is the same as for fuel price volatility: an external variable becomes a margin variable and must be treated as such in planning.
What the finance department can do
Several levers exist to manage currency risk, to be adapted to each company’s size and exposure:
- map the exposure: which lines of the income statement and balance sheet depend on which currency;
- budget with several exchange rates, not just one;
- use hedging instruments offered by banks, such as forward currency purchases;
- review the invoicing currency with suppliers and customers where possible;
- include indexation clauses in long-term sales contracts;
- track foreign-currency cash as closely as dirham cash.
These topics require treasury and risk-management skills that not every company has in-house. This is often when the question of recruiting a CFO or an experienced treasurer arises.
A specific challenge for subsidiaries of foreign groups
For subsidiaries of international groups based in Morocco, a weaker dirham has a double effect. Their contribution to group earnings, converted into foreign currency, shrinks. And transferring dividends requires more dirhams.
In these structures, local finance teams must explain to headquarters variances that come not from operating performance but from currency movements. It is an exercise in communication as much as finance, as we discussed in our article on Casablanca Finance City’s appeal to international groups.
Currency as a management issue
The dirham’s decline in 2026 is a reminder of something stable periods make us forget: currency is a risk, and risk must be managed.
Companies that have mapped their exposure and set up a hedging policy absorb these moves better. Others discover them in their margins, often too late.
The real question is therefore not only: how far will the dirham go?
It is also: does my company know how much one point of exchange rate costs it?
Does your company need to strengthen its treasury, management control or risk management? Our finance recruitment firm in Morocco can help. Tell us about your needs.
Frequently asked questions
How much has the dirham fallen in 2026?
According to TelQuel, since the start of the year USD/MAD has risen by 7.2% and EUR/MAD by 2.4%. It is the dirham’s sharpest depreciation since 2022.
Why is the dirham falling?
According to an October 23, 2026 note from Attijari Global Research cited by TelQuel, the pressure mainly comes from tighter foreign-currency liquidity linked to energy, phosphates and dividends, rather than from the currency basket.
How can a company protect itself against currency risk?
By mapping its exposure by currency, budgeting with several exchange rates, using forward hedges offered by banks and reviewing the invoicing currency of its contracts.
News source: TelQuel, “Energy, phosphates and dividends: the triple shock draining dirham liquidity” (in French), October 26, 2026.